How prediction works

Habit prediction is the quiet engine behind Steer's habits. The idea is simple: the more times something happens, the better Steer understands its rhythm, and the more accurately it can tell you when the next one is due.

#Learning the rhythm

Each time you log a habit, Steer notes the gap since the last time. From those gaps it works out a typical interval — "about every 5 weeks", "roughly twice a year" — and uses it to predict the next occurrence.

• One log gives Steer a starting point.
• A couple of logs let it estimate the rhythm.
• A steady history makes the prediction sharp and confident.

#The confidence score

Every prediction comes with a confidence score — Steer's honesty about how sure it is.

• High confidence — your habit is regular and Steer has plenty of history. The predicted date is reliable.
• Lower confidence — the habit is new, or the gaps vary a lot. Steer still gives its best guess, but flags that it's an estimate.

#Where the number comes from

There's no black box here — a prediction is built entirely from your own logged history, with simple, explainable maths:

Because it's grounded in what you've actually done, the estimate gets sharper the more you use it — and the confidence score always tells you how much weight to give it.

#You're always in control

Predictions are suggestions, never silent actions. Steer never changes your history on its own:

• Confirm a prediction and it's scheduled — pencilled in for that day, but not yet counted.
• Not now? The ✕ lets you snooze it (until tomorrow, next week, a week before it's due, or a date you pick) or stop predicting the habit entirely. Either way the prediction stays on the card as a quiet chip — tap it to confirm on demand, so a change of plans never loses it. These habits tuck into a Snoozed & off list at the bottom of your Habits screen, and one tap brings them back.
• Verify it when the day comes — only a "yes, it happened" turns a scheduled occurrence into a real one that counts toward your rhythm.

#Surfaced at the right time

A prediction you can't act on yet is just noise. So Steer also learns how far ahead you usually act — the gap between when you confirm an occurrence and the date you schedule it for — and uses that to decide when to nudge you.

• A prediction that's still far off sits quietly on the card.
• As it moves into your usual lead time (or slips past due), it steps forward — a highlighted border and a bolder Confirm button — so it catches your eye at the moment that actually suits you.

The more you confirm, the better Steer matches your style: book three weeks ahead and it'll surface three weeks ahead; do it last-minute and it won't badger you early.

#Irregular habits

Some things genuinely don't keep a steady beat. Steer handles this gracefully: it widens its estimate rather than pretending to be precise, and leans on the confidence score to set your expectations. You always get a useful "around when", even if it can't promise an exact day.

#Where predictions show up

• On the Habits screen — each habit shows its next predicted occurrence and confidence.
• In your Daily Brief — habits coming due appear under "coming up", so you're warned in advance.
• As reminders — timed to the predicted date, not a fixed daily buzz. More on reminders.

#Predictions improve as you go

Every occurrence you verify (or log yourself) feeds Steer another real data point — so its sense of your rhythm keeps getting sharper the longer you use it. Dismissed predictions cost you nothing: the next one is recalculated from your history.

#Where to next